The Year-Over-Year Air Cargo Upsurge Had to Plateau at Some Point, Right?
Air freight yielded a 31-month progressive streak before the steady increase in demand appeared to level off in certain global sectors within the industry. With the current macro-economic conditions playing hand in hand with the existing trade situation, air freight demand shows less than desirable averages.
The 2018 peak season seemed to rise prematurely due to the imminent rush for shipments prior to impending tariff increases, resulting in a lower-than-normal November. Europe’s dip in air freight demand could have also been in part due to Germany’s supplier delivery times being shortened in conjunction with their declining conditions for manufacturers.
While certain regions seem to be pulling down the international average, others are showing an increase in previously forecasted metrics. According to Air Cargo World, “The regions of North America and Latin America are also still experiencing increased demand for air cargo – both showing that volumes increased by 3.1 percent, year-over-year, in November.”
Despite uncertainties surmounting around international trade and global economy as a comprehensive view, IATA (International Air Transport Association) predicts a 2.2 million cargo metric ton increase by the end of 2019.
The fall in oil prices and continuous growth in international GDP has undoubtedly provided a buffer for the dip in international air freight as of late, and if quantifiable data is any indication, see below. The reference table indicates 2018 air freight percentages provided by IATA and WorldACD cargo analysts.